What to Watch for on Election Day As Harris and Trump Face Off - Business Insider

Nov 06, 2024

Election Day 2024 has arrived. Billions of dollars have been spent pushing voters to back specific candidates and causes.

Vice President Kamala Harris upended the presidential race with her late entry. Preelection polling suggests the election could be the closest in history. The margins are so tight that a polling error could result in an unexpected blowout.

More than 78 million Americans voted early, either in person or by mail. Final turnout may dip slightly from the historic mark set in 2020, but a Gallup poll indicated that voter enthusiasm was above 2008 levels.

It's not just control of the White House that's up for grabs; it's Congress, too. Republicans are favored to retake the Senate, thanks to key races occurring on favorable turf. The House is tougher to project. Republicans could net a few seats, or Democrats could flip the chamber with an equally narrow majority. New York and California, hardly competitive in the presidential race, loom large.

Here's what we're watching.

Harris' easiest path to victory remains what was once President Joe Biden's last resort: holding Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District — the so-called blue wall and blue dot. Barring any unexpected upsets, Harris would then win the Electoral College 270 to 268.

Former President Donald Trump's easiest route to victory also goes through Pennsylvania, the most important swing state. Winning Pennsylvania would likely allow Trump to retake the White House by holding North Carolina and flipping Georgia. In that scenario, he could even sustain the blow of losing electoral votes in Nebraska, which preelection polling suggests is very likely.

While so much focus is deservedly on Pennsylvania, Trump spent significant time in the race's final days in North Carolina, though only two Democrats, Presidents Barack Obama and Jimmy Carter, have won the Tar Heel State since 1976.

Bucks County, Pennsylvania: Gov. Josh Shapiro recently called this Philadelphia-area county "the swingiest of all swing counties in the swingiest of all swing states." Hillary Clinton won Bucks by fewer than 3,000 votes in 2016 and lost both the state and the White House. Biden won it by just over 17,000 votes four years ago en route to taking the state by roughly 80,000 votes. If Trump wants to retake Pennsylvania, doing well here is key.

Waukesha County, Wisconsin: Once traditional GOP ground, this suburban Milwaukee county has shifted along with other suburbs nationwide. Trump routed Clinton here in 2016, but four years later his margin decreased by just over 7 points, as he lost the state by roughly 21,000 votes.

Maricopa County, Arizona: In 2020, the home of Phoenix and one of the fastest-growing counties in the nation swung to Democrats by just over 2 points. Biden went on to win the state by roughly 10,000 votes. Gov. Doug Ducey, a popular Republican, had won the county by almost 14 points two years prior.

Exit polls provide the first major look at who turned out to vote. The embargo lifts at 5 p.m. ET, though specific results indicating who may win a state are held back until polls close in that area.

Though exit polls can offer valuable data, especially about demographics, they are often misleading and are not predictive.

Mark Blumenthal, a contractor at YouGov who was previously the head of election polling at SurveyMonkey, told Business Insider he'd be interested in how the vote breaks down by gender and race, particularly given the speculation that Democrats are losing ground among Black and Latino voters.

Overall, though, he cautions against making too much of exit polls on election night.

"As a means of trying to see who is going to win, between the time when they start being released, which is usually 5 p.m. Eastern tomorrow, and when we get a final count, my advice is to ignore them," Blumenthal said. "Utterly, completely ignore them. Go for a walk. Go take a yoga class. Watch something on Netflix. Because they're not designed to tell us who's going to be the winner of the presidential election."

Michigan: Rep. Elissa Slotkin is trying to grab a Senate seat that her fellow Democrats have held for 20 years. Former Rep. Mike Rogers, once a Trump critic, hopes the former president will push him over the top. Rogers and his allies have zeroed in on Slotkin's support for the White House's fuel-efficiency standards that do not mandate electric-vehicle production but would likely result in the auto industry producing more EVs. Preelection polling: Slotkin was up by roughly 3 points in RealClearPolitics' average.

Ohio: Sen. Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, has managed to survive challenges in the former swing state that now tilts toward Republicans. His challenger, Bernie Moreno, a Cleveland businessman, has hammered Brown over immigration. AdImpact has said the Ohio Senate race is the most expensive nonpresidential race ever. Preelection polling: Moreno was up by less than 1 point in RealClearPolitics' average.

Montana: Sen. Jon Tester, a Democrat, is facing an even tougher challenge in Montana, a state Trump carried by more than 16 points in 2020. Republicans worked hard to elevate Tim Sheehy, a wealthy aerospace executive, though expectations of a bruising primary didn't come to pass. Like other Republican hopefuls, Sheehy has tried to tie Harris to Tester. Pre-election polling: Sheehy was up by 6.5 points in RealClearPolitics' average.

Arizona's 1st District: Rep. David Schweikert, a Republican, has represented Scottsdale and its surrounding areas in Congress for almost 14 years. Gov. Katie Hobbs and Sen. Mark Kelly easily won the area, one of the most educated districts still held by a Republican. His challenger, former state Rep. Amish Shah, has highlighted his centrist record and is hoping Trump's unpopularity will sink Schweikert.

New York's 19th: In 2022, Rep. Marc Molinaro was one of four Republicans in New York who flipped a seat held by a Democrat, which proved vital to the GOP's retaking the chamber. Democrats are hoping Josh Riley, a lawyer and policy analyst, can win in a rematch with the help of Harris at the top of the ticket. More than $35 million has been spent on the race, making it the most expensive House contest in the nation.

California's 22nd: Rep. David Valadao is one of 18 House Republicans representing a district Biden won in 2020. Valadao is also one of the two remaining House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump after the Capitol riot on January 6, 2021. Former state Rep. Rudy Salas is, like many Democrats in key races, hoping to win in a rematch after falling short two years ago.